MUBANGA LUCHEMBE
IN its latest update released on June 30, the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) noted that inflows typically begin to decrease further from July onwards due to seasonal changes. As of that day, the lake level stood at 478.93 metres, a slight improvement compared to 477.28 metres recorded on the same date last year.
This increase translates to a usable live storage volume of 15.58 billion cubic metres (BCM), almost double the 7.98BCM available at this time in 2024.
However, ZRA warned that while the figures reflected a positive trend, the levels remained below the threshold required to sustain full-capacity hydropower generation.
Currently, only 24.05 percent of the usable live storage is available for electricity production, an improvement from last year’s 12.32 percent, but still insufficient to guarantee an uninterrupted power supply across the region, ZRA emphasised.
This means that although current lake levels were higher than those recorded during the same period last year, they remained insufficient to support full-scale power generation by the power utility companies of Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Lake Kariba was designed to operate between 475.50 metres and 488.50 metres, with a 0.70-metre freeboard to ensure safe and efficient energy production. As inflows continue to decline, experts anticipate that the upward trend may reverse in the coming weeks.
Despite all this, yet President Hakainde Hichilema emphasised the significance of electricity exports for Zambia’s economic growth, citing the substantial earnings it generated – albeit much to the chagrin of the communities afflicted with 21-hours load-shedding agony across this country.
Speaking during a tour of the Chisamba 100MW solar plant on the same day – June 30 – President Hichilema balanced the need for exports with domestic demand, ensuring sufficient power supply for Zambians.
The president expressed optimism that Zambia would become an energy-surplus nation within three years, citing ongoing power interventions. He highlighted the UPND government’s commitment to diversifying the energy mix, reducing dependence on hydroelectric power, and achieving a target of 1, 000MW of solar power this year.
Connected to this, Zesco Board Chairperson Vickson Ncube said he was confident that load-shedding would come to an end by December this year.
Appearing on Diamond TV, a day later, Mr. Ncube added that the country had enough projects in the pipeline with the capacity to resolve the load-shedding problem. Asked whether he shared President Hichilema’s vision for the country to produce 1, 000MW of solar power this year, Mr. Ncube replied in the affirmative, adding that the target could even be exceeded.
He added that Zambians are going to achieve the 1, 000MW, if not more, as a nation “as we have enough pipeline projects, both private sector-driven and Zesco-driven. But in stark contrast to the way its regional partner, Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), which is a subsidiary of Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA), does things and responsible for the transmission of electricity from the power stations, the distribution of electricity as well as its retailing to end users.
At ZETDC there is also distribution asset management, which includes network planning, development, operation and maintenance. It includes marketing which involves, widening the scope and depth of the customer base, pricing and a provision of a safe and reliable service to customers.
ZETDC recently announced that it will now reduce load-shedding to three-hours per day. Meaning that, there will be 21-hours constant electricity across that country due to improved water levels in Lake Kariba.
Historically, though, ZESA was unbundled nearly two decades ago into five subsidiaries: Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) for generation; ZETDC for distribution; the Rural Electrification Agency; ZESA Enterprises (ZENT), which manufactures electrical equipment; and Powertel, an internet service provider owned by ZESA.
Back home and contrary to this, there has been a growing awareness amongst knowledgeable observers of the country’s socio-politico-economic landscape that Zesco’s prolonged hours of load-shedding has immensely contributed to the escalating unemployment in the country.
They have urged the UPND government to implement comprehensive strategies to address the country’s escalating unemployment rate, which they cautioned posed a serious threat to its socio-economic development and stability.
According to the 2022 Census National Analytical Report, youth unemployment in Zambia surged to 14.5 percent in 2022, up from 9.37 percent in 2021.
Reacting to the report, knowledgeable observers attributed the surge in unemployment levels to the increase in job losses due to load-shedding in the manufacturing and small-scale business sectors.
They emphasised that the growing unemployment rate required long-term solutions, including offering low-interest loans to youth-led businesses, infrastructure support for entrepreneurship ventures and skills development opportunities.
Amidst all this, the questions posed by Zambians afflicted by load-shedding is: Why does Zimbabwe experience less load-shedding than Zambia – despite both relying on Lake Kariba?
Yet clearly, both Zambia and Zimbabwe depend heavily on the Kariba Dam for electricity. But with the worst drought in decades drastically reducing water levels, both countries have had to cut back on hydropower generation.
Yet, public sentiment suggests that Zimbabwe is experiencing fewer blackouts than Zambia. Why is that, given they share the same dam?
Despite having more installed capacity, Zambia has a higher national demand driven by its mining industry, urban growth and economic activity.
Zimbabwe, on the other hand, has a lower national demand, making it slightly easier to balance supply and demand during drought or hydropower shortfalls.
The difference likely lies in energy diversification, demand profiles and how each country is managing the crisis. Zambia has an installed generation capacity of around 3, 872MW and a peak demand of roughly 2, 400MW.
Zimbabwe has about 2, 771MW of capacity and a peak demand of roughly 1, 693MW. Zimbabwe’s key advantage is the Hwange Thermal Power Station, generating 920MW. This non-hydro source has cushioned the country during Kariba shortfalls.
Zimbabwe also uses bagasse (sugarcane waste) and other smaller coal power plants. Zambia, on the other hand, is still over 80 percent dependent on hydropower, with some about 450MW thermal capacity at Maamba Collieries and solar setups, but overall limited diversification. This makes droughts much more disruptive.
While both countries are affected by the same drought and the same dam, Zimbabwe’s diversified energy mix, lower demand, and use of thermal backup may have given it an edge. Albeit, Zambia is making steady progress, but continued investment, reforms, and public cooperation are imperative to building energy resilience.
Moreover, it’s high time that Zambian main sugar manufacturers like Zambia Sugar invested in the use of biogas for power-generation for their own use at their milling plants and contribute excess capacity to Zesco’s national grid.
