By MUBANGA LUCHEMBE
SOME political parties became immediately upbeat about their participation in the Kabwata parliamentary by-election, following the announcement of the date for the electoral contest by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ).
With just weeks before the forthcoming parliamentary by-election slated for January 20, 2022, most governing politicians appear to have failed to convince a skeptical electorate in Kabwata constituency that they are prepared to play the game honourably devoid of unrealistic campaign promises that are made to be broken once voted into office. But will the January 20 polls prove that Lusaka’s would-be most heavily-contested constituency has finally metamorphosed into a stable, progressive democracy coupled with a myriad-of-yet-to-be-fulfilled campaign promises?
As knowledgeable observers of the country’s political landscape are acutely aware, the period running up to by-elections is a characteristic mix of the not-so-good, the downright ugly and, of course, the unpredictable. Whilst the undisputed winners of August 12, 2021 general elections, have long begun their campaigns, those at the losing end are refusing to lick their wounds and ride quietly into the political sunset. That raises the question: Will UPND, PF and other contestants spend the campaign period trying to outsmart each other on social media platforms?
Quite astonishingly, UPND spokesperson Cornelius Mweetwa conceded that the Kabwata by-election would not be easy and that the party should work hard to retain the seat. Adding that the appointment of some key party members into the civil service would not affect the party as it had no shortage of leaders. Furthermore, he explained that the Kabwata by-election was not going to be a walk-in-the-park despite the UPND winning the parliamentary seat in the last general elections.
Admittedly, political parties across the political divide will lock horns on this occasion in Lusaka next year in a desperate bid to establish their supremacy in the national capital, unleashing brisk activities starting with the campaign for the January 20 by-election. As the PF fights fiercely to regain ground, the former ruling party conceded its popularity, which had peaked in 2011 when it first came to power in the country, to the UPND in the just-ended election in August. With the UPND winning four out of the seven parliamentary seats, it seems that Lusaka District followed the national narrative of regime change that drove the presidential, parliamentary and civic elections.
Historically, both UPND and PF had flirted with each ahead of the 2011 election to seal an alliance but couldn’t reach a definite agreement and ultimately fought separately against the 20-year old MMD regime. The year started with UPND campaigning aggressively with full support from the South African-based Brenthurst Foundation, but after the consecutive 2011, 2015 and 2016 election defeats a relatively subdued face of the party emerged.
Appearing to have recovered from the recent electoral loss, the PF top leadership and its central committee have been thinking of reenergizing the party in readiness for next year’s national convention, claiming to return to power in 2026. To realise that target, the former ruling party has roped in election strategist Raphael Nakachinda and his former MMD factional organization. Its main rival, the UPND, is upbeat riding on the success of the just-ended election in August, and is banking on the yet-to-be-fulfilled myriad of campaign promises.
It is, therefore, not surprising that political morality has become such a hot by-election issue for Kabwata constituency. Opposition parties smell blood because the UPND seems vulnerable when it comes to matters of failure to implement its erstwhile campaign promises. So far, all the UPND has been able to do in response to calls in some quarters to cancel fuel and electricity subsidies is to mumble incoherently since IMF’s terms still need to be clarified over its impending US$1.4bn bailout package which has rendered the ruling party a rudderless ship. Surely, isn’t the ground fertile for a UPND by-election defeat in Kabwata constituency? Well, Zambian politics is much simpler than that.
Add to this the fact that the UPND is blessed with the advantage of weakened opposition parties. It is for this reason that the reenergizing of the PF by its rejuvenated leaders has aroused so much interest. Some hope that the newly-rebuilt party – led by a crop of younger leaders – will be the answer to the problem of weakened opposition to the UPND.
However, it is strongly believed in some quarters that the upcoming by-election will deliver another UPND victory since the former PF leaders who will reenergize the former ruling party are partly responsible for the rot we see in the ex-ruling party today – despite who is put forward as the ‘public face’ of the rejuvenated PF. One thing is for sure – we can rely on the voters’ sense of divided loyalty to downgrade the IMF deal as a by-election issue. The upcoming by-election will not be won and lost on who may be first or last to cancel fuel and electricity subsidies – much to the detriment of the electorates.
But for all the administrative challenges ECZ faces in organizing credible polls, what matters most – having a process that guarantees the predominance of cerebral, honest and hardworking politicians in government – seems to have been sadly lost. With only weeks between the nominations of candidates to be held on December 28, 2021 and the upcoming polls, there is not enough time for the voting public to robustly engage politicians on the issues that matter most to them – the revival of the previous government’s debt-swap initiative for civil servants, reversing the sorry state of education, health and critical infrastructure, providing jobs for millions of Zambia’s unemployed youth, as well as ensuring graft-free ethical conduct in government.
For Lusaka’s would-be most heavily-contested constituency to metamorphose into a stable, progressive constituency that, finally, takes its rightful place in the comity of citizens – as the undisputed leader of Zambia’s capital city and the defender of its political and economic interests – it must cross this Rubicon, as the alternative is too frightening to contemplate.
