HH unlikely to gunner 50%+1 in 2026, says M’membe

By GIDEON NYENDWA

PRESIDENT Hakainde Hichilema and the UPND are unlikely to get the 50%+1 in the 2026 general election going by the combined results of the opposition in the many by-election the ruling party has been winning, Fred M’membe has observed.
Dr. M’membe says combined opposition votes in the Mumbwa, Malole, and Chipata ward by-elections had by far surpassed those of the UPND, suggesting a potential shift in public sentiment.
He said if the by-election results were projected onto a national scale, Mr. Hichilema would have garnered only 43 percent of the vote, falling short of the majority threshold.
Dr. M’membe said in Chipata, the UPND secured 41.5 percent of votes, while in Malole, the party trailed at 37.3 percent and only in Mumbwa did the ruling party achieve a dominant 64 percent.
He said the Socialist Party (SP) of which he is president, emerged as the second-strongest force, capturing 20.9 percent of the combined votes, placing it in contention for a rerun scenario.
Dr. M’membe said the results highlight a growing rejection of the UPND by Zambians despite alleged manipulation, intimidation, and abuse of state resources, the opposition is steadily gaining traction.
“The people have read through the lies and divisiveness of this government. The by-election results reflect their response,” he said.
He said the ruling party’s declining popularity, coupled with its perceived failures in governance, has fueled dissatisfaction among citizens especially the worsening economic hardships and alleged corruption as factors driving this sentiment.
Dr. M’membe said while the UPND maintains strongholds like Mumbwa, the opposition’s growing consolidation could lead to a competitive 2026 election.
He said if the trends persist, the UPND may face a rerun, a scenario that could reshape the country’s political landscape.