The biggest fear against delimitation is the inherent danger of gerrymandering, a process in which boundaries are drawn to give unfair advantage to the ruling party.
Coming so close before elections next year the opposition, the church and many Civil society organizations fear that the process will be used to give an unfair advantage to the ruling UPND, by increasing the number of safe seats in its strongholds.Judging by historical precedence there is a fear, quite real for that matter that every seat created in Southern Province for example will go to the ruling party, while any other seat elsewhere will be subject to competition.
The very term gerrymandering comes from the United States of America where boundaries were manipulated to give an unfair advantage to the ruling party.
In North Carolina (2016-2022) Republicans won 50% of the votes statewide in 2018 but secured 77% of the congressional seats due to a heavily gerrymandered map. Courts later ruled the map unconstitutional due to extreme partisan bias.In Illinois (2021) Democrats, who controlled the state legislature, drew maps favoring their party, ensuring more safe Democratic districts while limiting Republican representation.In the USA, it has been observed that some states, like California and Michigan, use independent commissions to draw district maps to reduce bias. But in many states, gerrymandering remains a powerful tool for political parties.
There is serious worry that the Republican now intending to re-demarcate boundaries to eliminate black and minority dominance in the electoral outcomes, because every 10 years, after their census, states redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. In most states, the party in control of the state legislature has the power to draw these maps, which allows for gerrymandering.
Our very own former Electoral Commission of Zambia officer Kryticous Patrick Nshindano has warned that, it has been nearly six years since the last delimitation exercise, and with only 16 months remaining until the next general elections, the risk of gerrymandering looms large.
“In Zambia, where the FPTP electoral system amplifies the impact of boundary changes, the stakes are particularly high. If delimitation is not conducted with transparency and impartiality, it can distort electoral outcomes, disenfranchise voters, and erode public trust in the democratic process,” Mr Nshindano, the former Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) Chief Electoral Officer warned.
One of the most immediate consequences of gerrymandering, he has warned, is disproportionate representation. This occurs when a political party secures a majority of seats in Parliament despite receiving fewer overall votes.
This would happen where the UPND would create more “safe” seats in its strongholds thereby ensuring an artificial preponderance in “Parliament“ which … this can result in candidates running unopposed or predictable election outcomes, further discouraging voter participation and reducing political diversity in Parliament.
The fear is that gerrymandering “poses a multifaceted threat to Zambia’s democratic process.
It distorts representation, stifles competition, marginalizes minority voices, and weakens public trust in institutions.
To safeguard the integrity of elections and uphold democratic principles, it is imperative that delimitation exercises are conducted transparently, impartially, and in strict adherence to legal and constitutional frameworks. Failure to do so risks undermining the very foundations of Zambia’s democracy.”Already however the outcome of the 2022 census report is in controversy!
