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By BARNABAS ZULU
GOVERNANCE activist Professor Edgar Ng’oma says the United Party for National Development (UPND) government’s relentless criticism of Zambia’s sixth President, Edgar Lungu, has ironically increased his popularity among voters.
Prof. Ngoma, a distinguished philosopher and governance fellow, argued that the New Dawn government’s approach to dealing with Lungu and his Patriotic Front (PF) party has backfired, bolstering the former president’s public support rather than diminishing it.
“The constant criticism has boosted ECL’s popularity, making him a formidable force,” Prof. Ngoma stated in his write-up. “Their constant focus on disparaging him has created unintended consequences, leading to voter apathy, resentment, and, ultimately, a rise in sympathy for Mr Lungu.”
Prof. Ng’oma outlined three psychological factors that he believes explain why this strategy has backfired: The Sympathy Factor, The Backlash Effect, and Desensitization. “The Sympathy Factor occurs when a candidate, continuously under attack, starts to appear more relatable, especially when the criticism is perceived as unfair,” he said. “Voters, especially those dissatisfied with the government, may start to sympathize with Mr Lungu, viewing him as an underdog.” Mr Ng’oma also pointed to the Backlash Effect, where voters may begin to resent the party doing the criticizing, ultimately damaging their own credibility. He drew parallels to recent political events, including the election in Botswana, where the ruling party suffered a backlash after focusing too heavily on criticizing the opposition.
“Look at what happened in Botswana—President Masisi and his BDP Party were ousted in the most recent election after negative campaigning against opposition candidates,” Prof. Ngoma noted. “The same could happen in Zambia if the UPND continues this approach.”
Additionally, Prof. Ng’oma discussed the impact of Desensitization, where voters, exposed to constant negativity, may become numb to the criticisms and less responsive to legitimate concerns about the targeted candidate. “By constantly criticizing Mr Lungu, the UPND risks desensitizing the electorate, making them less responsive to the real issues at hand,” Prof. Ngoma warned.
Prof. Ng’oma stated the importance of understanding voter psychology and the emotional triggers that can influence election outcomes.
“Voters are driven by a mix of emotions, including fear, hope, and frustration,” he explained. “A successful campaign must connect with voters on an emotional level, but it must also focus on the issues that matter most to them.”
He called for a strategic shift in the UPND’s approach. Rather than focusing on the failings of the past government.
Prof. Ng’oma advised the current administration to concentrate on its own achievements and future vision. “The New Dawn government must focus on promoting its successes, its anti-corruption efforts, and its plans for economic recovery,” he said.
Prof. Ng’oma also urged the UPND to rethink its communication strategies.
“Highlighting the government’s achievements, engaging with citizens, and presenting a clear vision for the country’s future are essential steps to rebuilding public trust,” he argued. “This will allow the UPND to reduce polarization and avoid deepening divisions within the electorate.”
He stressed that while it was important to hold accountable those responsible for corruption and mismanagement, the current strategy of incessantly attacking Mr Lungu and PF risks empowering the very individuals they seek to discredit. “The people already spoke at the ballot box in 2021. Continuing to attack ECL only reinforces his image as a sympathetic figure,” he stated.
The governance expert concluded by calling on the New Dawn government to adopt a more constructive and issue-based approach to governance. “Focusing on your own vision and achievements, rather than tearing down your opponents, is the way forward,” he said. “This will lead to more informed voters and a healthier democratic process.”
