BUUMBA CHIMBULU
THE Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat has warned that eight of its Member States are poised to face serious trade challenges following the introduction of new reciprocal tariffs by the United States government.
The affected countries include the Democratic Republic of Congo: 11 percent, Libya: 31 percent, Madagascar: 47 percent, Malawi: 17 percent, Mauritius: 40 percent, Tunisia: 28 percent, Zambia: 17 percent and Zimbabwe: 18 percent.
The new tariff measures are expected to significantly reduce trade volumes for the region in 2025 according to a policy brief titled “Implications of the U.S. Tariff on COMESA: A Game Theoretic Approach to Trade Negotiations,” compiled by the Division of Trade and Customs at the COMESA Secretariat in Lusaka.
While the United States is not among COMESA’s primary trading partners, the Secretariat notes that the increased tariffs could trigger notable supply and demand shocks across Member States.
The policy brief warns that elevated production costs and consumer prices in the U.S. are likely to contract its economy, subsequently reducing demand for exports from COMESA countries.
Key regional exports such as Kenyan textiles and Zambian copper are expected to become less competitive in the U.S. market due to inflated prices.
At the same time, essential capital goods imported from the U.S. will see price increases, further straining the economies of the affected countries.
In response to these challenges, COMESA is advocating for a variable cooperative game strategy.
The policy brief recommends open negotiations and binding trade agreements with strategic partners including the European Union, China, Japan, India, the Middle East, and other like-minded economies to diversify market access.
“The African Union Commission is urged to engage the U.S. government to address the implications of the ongoing tariff disputes and to reaffirm the importance of a rules-based international trading system,” the policy states.
It also calls for the consolidation of continental and regional economic integration, noting that stronger intra-African trade and investment will help cushion Member States from external shocks.
The brief underscores the importance of implementing regional value chains and reducing dependency on external markets.
To achieve this, it recommends increased investments from African financial institutions such as the African Development Bank, Exim Bank, and the Trade Development Bank to improve physical infrastructure including roads, railways, and airports, thereby supporting industrial development and cross-border connectivity.
Trade data shows that between 2019 and 2023, COMESA’s share of exports and imports to and from the United States ranged between 3–4 percent and 4–5 percent, respectively. Dr. Christopher Onyango, COMESA’s Director of Trade and Customs, noted that U.S.-Africa trade relations have long been governed by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), enacted in 2000.
The act granted qualifying African nation’s duty-free access to the U.S. market for a wide range of products, in recognition of their socio-economic challenges.
However, the new tariffs mark a stark departure from AGOA’s original objectives, raising concerns that these protectionist measures could result in production cuts and widespread job losses across African economies.
Currently, 35 African countries are eligible for AGOA benefits, including 10 COMESA Member States: Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eswatini, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, and Zambia.
