KARIBA TO HAVE ONLY 9PC WATER STORAGE BY END OF 2027

By MUBITA KATETE LAKE Kariba is projected to close 2027 with only nine percent of its usable water storage remaining, as the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) warns of below-normal rainfall linked to strengthening El Niño conditions. It has allocated 23 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water for electricity generation at Kariba Power Stations in 2027, with Zesco Limited and Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) each allocated 11.5 BCM. In a statement, ZRA acting Chief Executive Peter Kapinga said the allocation was based on regional rainfall forecasts, national meteorological projections and its own assessments of expected water inflows. The allocation is projected to leave Lake Kariba with 5.83 BCM of usable water by December 31, 2027, equivalent to nine percent of its live storage capacity. The ZRA said the forecast was informed by the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), which projected an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern parts of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. “For southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe, below-normal rainfall is expected during the early part of the season, with the same likely to extend across most areas of both countries from January to March 2027,” the statement said. However, the ZRA said the 2026 water allocation for power generation would remain unchanged at 36 BCM, following an increase from the initial 30 BCM allocation. Zesco and ZPC were each allocated 18 BCM after improved inflows during the 2025/2026 rainy season boosted water availability in the reservoir. As of October 14, 2026, Zesco had 3.53 BCM remaining from its allocation, representing 19.66 percent, while ZPC had 6.13 BCM, equivalent to 34.09 percent. The ZRA projected that Lake Kariba would close 2026 with 16.24 BCM of usable water, representing 25.10 percent of live storage capacity. The latest figures show an improvement in the reservoir’s water levels compared with the same period last year. ZRA said it was monitoring water utilisation daily and coordinating with the two power utilities to ensure compliance with approved allocations. It said the rainfall outlook provided an important basis for early planning and coordinated action to manage the shared water resource. Lake Kariba is a critical source of hydroelectric power for Zambia and Zimbabwe, making its water levels important to electricity generation and economic activity in both countries.

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